The economic and social benefits of autonomous driving are immense. There may not be anything in history that provides benefits that are as significant and broad. Some of these have been publicized, but others may not be so obvious. Here are the questions generally asked about the benefits of AVs.
Will AVs significantly reduce accidents?
Yes, there are almost 11 million auto accidents in the U.S. each year. Experts estimate that AVs will eliminate 90% of these accidents. That is about 10 million fewer automobile accidents annually.
Will AVs reduce auto fatalities?
More than 36,000 people die every year in automobile accidents in the U.S. Auto fatalities have become an accepted American tragedy. Almost everyone knows someone killed in an auto accident and would do anything to have saved them. AVs will do that. Auto fatalities will be reduced by more than 90%, saving the lives of more than 30,000 people a year, which equates to a million lives saved over three decades.
Will it also reduce injuries from auto accidents?
An additional 2.35 million people are severely injured or disabled by auto accidents every year. Many require extensive hospitalization, and some must live the rest of their lives with the limitations of these injuries. AVs will avoid 90% or more than two million injuries annually.
Will it save the lives of many children?
Over 1,600 children under 15 years of age die in automobile accidents each year in the U.S., and nearly 8,000 people are killed in crashes involving drivers ages 16-20.
How many lives will be saved worldwide?
A staggering number of people are killed in road accidents globally. Nearly 1.3 million people are killed annually, an average of more than 3,000 people per day. AVs will prevent accidents in other developed countries just as they will in the U.S. However, it will take decades before AVs will be as prevalent in developing countries.
Why do experts believe that AVs will reduce accidents?
Most, approximately 92%, of all accidents are caused by driver error, specifically the following:
Speeding: The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) estimates that speeding was a factor in 28% of all traffic fatalities.
Drunk Driving: Alcohol-impaired driving accounted for 29% of all motor vehicle traffic fatalities in the United States.
Running Red Lights: Approximately 2.5% of auto-related fatalities are caused by vehicles running red lights. About half of those deaths are pedestrians or occupants of other vehicles who are hit by red-light runners.
Falling Asleep: An estimated 21% of fatal crashes involve a drowsy driver.
Distracted Driving: Distracted driving is an increasing problem. Activities that take drivers' attention off the road, including talking or texting on cell phones, eating, conversing with passengers and other distractions, constitute a significant safety threat. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) estimates that approximately 10% of the fatal accidents are caused by distracted drivers.
How will AVs avoid driver errors?
If you look at these causes, AVs won’t be susceptible to them. They won’t speed or run traffic lights. They won’t be drunk or fall asleep. And they will never be distracted.
Will the reduction in auto accidents lower health care costs?
Yes, because of fewer auto accidents, health care costs should be reduced by a meaningful amount.
Will AVs reduce the time wasted driving?
American drivers annually spend an average of almost 300 hours driving, based on a 2016 survey from the AAA Foundation. During this time, a typical driver traveled nearly 10,900 miles (approximately 2.5 trillion miles in total for all drivers). The average driver drives the equivalent of seven 40-hour work weeks per year. If they could do something other than driving, they would get back these seven 40-hour weeks. It would almost be like getting an extra seven weeks of vacation. Looked at another way, drivers drive approximately 5% of their waking hours. If the typical person freed up from some of their driving time to do something better, it would be equivalent to adding 3-4 years to their useful life.
What about commuting time?
Commuting time is a category of driving time that most people would like to eliminate. Experts estimate that autonomous driving will save more than 250 million hours of commuter driving time per year.
Will AVs change commuting patterns?
Many experts believe that if people could do something more productive with their commuting time, then they might choose to live further away from work. They could move to rural or suburban areas where homes are more affordable, and the quality of living is better.
Will AVs help lower-income families?
This is a newly identified benefit that has been talked about recently. Many lower-income families cannot afford to own a car, or maybe they own one but need another and can't afford it. Because of this, they must live in cities where they can commute to work or school using public transportation. They don't have the option of living further outside of a city where housing may be less expensive and living conditions better. With low-cost autonomous ride services (ARS), commuting to the city will be affordable, and they could move to better housing and preferred communities further outside of the city.
What will drivers do with all this free time when they no longer need to drive a car, and everyone becomes a passenger?
They will be able to replace wasted driving time with increased productive working time or increased leisure or social activities. The possibilities are endless.
They could do work on their computers while commuting, participate in conference calls, or make business calls.
They could use their time to get an online degree or take specialized courses.
They could learn a foreign language.
They could sleep or eat breakfast.
They could watch a movie or read.
They could play video games.
Several people in a vehicle could have a meeting while being transported by the autonomous vehicle.
Families could have family time together instead of the driver needing to be attentive to driving.
Friends could use the time to talk or have cocktails (since there isn’t a need for a designated driver).
Is there an indication of particularly exciting activities for this free driving time?
Many surveys indicate that people are interested in having sex in AVs with their free time.
Will companies enable employees to count this productive commuting time as work, letting them work fewer hours in the office or fewer days?
That’s a question that will be debated once AVs enable more productive time.
Will AVs reduce transportation costs?
There will be major reductions to travel costs, which are the second highest cost for American families. AAA estimates that owning and maintaining the typical car costs approximately $8,500 per year, not including fuel. SUVs can cost $10,000. Replacing car ownership with ARS can cut the cost of transportation by 50%, or more.
How many cars does the average family in the U.S. own?
The average family owns almost two cars per household. Although, recent studies show that the ownership trends per person, driver, and household, are fewer cars and fewer miles driven.
How will car ownership be reduced?
Experts expect that many families will reduce the number of cars they own when they begin using ARS.
Don’t cars sit idle most of the time?
Yes, the average car sits idle 95% of the time. It's an expensive waste to own anything that is only used 5% of the time.
How will ARS reduce car ownership and increase utilization?
Car ownership will be reduced significantly as autonomous ride services become prevalent. Unlike individual owned cars, ARS vehicles will be utilized from 40%-60% of the time. Paying for a car as you need a ride will save money for most people. Families with two cars will cut back to one. People living in cities increasingly will not own a car.
How much could this save a typical family?
The typical American family eventually will reduce car ownership by 30%-40%, for an average cost saving of approximately $6,000 per year, which equates to a savings of about 10% in household spending. Collectively across all American households, this estimated savings could reach $750 billion per year.
Will this mean that there will be fewer cars?
Yes. With 40%-60% utilization, each ARS vehicle eventually will displace 8-10 individually-owned cars.
Does this mean fewer cars on the roads?
Not necessarily, since ARS vehicles will be on the roads more than individually-owned cars.
Will AVs reduce congestion and traffic jams?
Autonomous driving can reduce traffic congestion in several ways. It will increase throughput on road systems by better synchronizing traffic. Think of the accordion effect where traffic congestion occurs on highways when a car slows for some reason, causing all the following vehicles to slow progressively until congestion occurs. If all vehicles are coordinated, traveling at the same speed, say 80-90 miles per hour, there would be more throughput with less congestion.
Many traffic jams are caused by traffic stopping for accidents; will the reduction in accidents reduce this?
Yes, the reduction of traffic accidents will also reduce congestion. Accidents are a significant cause of traffic congestion, and congestion, especially sudden congestion, is also a cause of traffic accidents.
Are there other ways that AVs will reduce congestion and traffic jams?
One of the leading causes of traffic jams is selfish driver behavior. When drivers space out and allow each other to move freely between lanes on the highway, traffic flows more smoothly, despite the number of cars on the road. AVs will do that.
What is the estimated savings of reduced congestion?
The cost of congestion is estimated to be $123 billion per year, considering: time wasted in congested traffic, fuel consumed, and the effect of traffic congestion on the environment. It also considers indirect costs, given that it is more expensive and time-consuming to transport goods or attend meetings in traffic congested cities. This estimate is based on the INRIX index that collects data from more than 180 million vehicles and devices. Inrix calculated that congestion costs U.S. drivers an average of $1,400 per driver each year.
Will AVs reduce miles driven by vehicles?
That's not clear. Autonomous driving will reduce unnecessary travel, such as travel required to drive those who cannot drive, particularly children, to and from locations. However, as travel becomes more convenient and less expensive, people may travel more.
Will AVs reduce the cost of accidents too?
The 11 million automobile accidents annually are costly. Auto insurance costs almost $200 billion in the U.S. Property damage from accidents is more than $75 billion, and there are also other related costs. Legal costs from auto accidents are more than $10 billion. Emergency services cost about $1 billion, and the total estimated public spending on auto accidents is approximately $18 billion.
If AVs reduce accidents by 90%, they will save almost $200 billion in damages and healthcare costs annually. It is expected to lower insurance premiums by at least 40%-50%. While this will be good news for drivers, it is not such good news for insurance companies or trial lawyers.
Will AVs reduce the need for parking?
Many predict that autonomous vehicles will reduce the need for parking. Autonomous vehicles can return to a starting point or alternative location instead of parking and waiting. They will be able to drop off passengers at the front door of their destination, park themselves somewhere less costly, or return home and come back to pick up their passengers when summoned. Drivers won't have the frustrating task of looking for a parking space because the car can do it all on its own.
How expensive is it to find a parking space?
Finding a parking spot can be frustrating and expensive. INRIX used its parking database of more than 35 million spaces in 8,700 cities across 100 countries and combined this with a large-scale study of 17,986 drivers' parking behavior and experiences across 30 cities in the U.S., U.K., and Germany. It estimated that searching for parking imposes a significant economic burden on drivers. In the U.S., U.K., and Germany the average driver wasted an estimated 17, 44 and 41 hours a year respectively.
Will people avoid expensive parking lots?
The cost of parking can be prohibitive, particularly in some large cities. It can be as much as $40-$50 for short-term (2 hours) parking and $400-$700 per month. Autonomous vehicles should have an earlier impact in cities with high parking rates, and therefore fewer people will need to use expensive parking.
Will this reduce the stress of finding a parking space?
Looking for parking spots can be stressful. In studies, almost two-thirds of America's drivers (61%) reported they felt stressed trying to find a parking spot, nearly half (42%) missed an appointment, one-in-three (34%) abandoned a trip because of parking problems and one-quarter (23%) experienced road rage.
Will this cause a reduction in parking facilities?
Yes. There are almost a billion parking spaces in the U.S., and these are not used most of the time. There are more than 40,000 garages and parking lots. With the increase in ARS, there will be less need for parking spaces.
Will these transform urban areas?
The reduced need for parking will transform many urban areas. The number of parking spaces required is usually set by local zoning to be sufficient for peak demand. Buildings could be designed to use less land because of a lower need for adjacent parking. Parking lots could become green space and parks. City planners are already beginning to imagine the positive ways to use this additional space.
How will AVs improve mobility for the disabled?
AVs will provide new independence of travel for the millions of people who are disabled and unable to drive themselves. Blind people will be able to get to work just as efficiently as sighted people, enabling them to be more productive in the workforce. Those with other disabilities will have the freedom to travel without needing to drive. Eventually, there will be customized ARS vehicles and AVs for different disabilities.
How will AVs relieve the burden on parents for transporting children?
Parents won't have to worry about getting their kids to soccer practice, music lessons, or other activities. They won’t have to chauffeur them to the movies on the weekend. This will take a tremendous burden from parents, enabling them to spend more time at work or other activities.
Will this form of transportation be safe for children?
Special child-safe AVs will provide that service. A parent or authorized adult can make sure the child gets into the vehicle. A video feed will enable the parent to watch their child in the car, and the car will notify the parent when the child reaches the destination. Additionally, there will most likely be regulations about how old children need to be to use these autonomous services. For example, children may need to be at least 12-years old.
Could the availability of ARS encourage states to consider increasing the driving age?
This is an interesting idea that has not been discussed very much. Even though new teenaged drivers have high accident and fatality rates, there is offsetting pressure to give them the mobility to drive to work, school, and other activities. If ARS provide a viable alternative, some states may consider increasing the driving age as a reasonable safety measure.
Will fewer people get driver’s licenses?
Yes. This is already happening with the availability of ridesharing. With convenient ARS, more people will see driving as unnecessary.
Will the elderly use AVs instead of driving?
Many older adults continue to drive long after they should have stopped because they don't want to feel confined to their homes. Others always stay at home. With AVs, especially ARS, they will have the freedom to travel when they want. Children of aging parents won't need to take time off work to make sure parents get to doctor's appointments or activities.
Will AVs save energy?
Autonomous driving could significantly reduce energy usage – or increase it, depending on your assumptions. These estimates are currently a matter of debate and uncertainty. Here are some of the arguments on each side of the issue.
The Energy Information Administration estimates that by 2050, autonomous vehicles could reduce fuel consumption by as much as 44 percent for passenger vehicles and 18 percent for trucks. However, those gains could be offset if autonomous vehicles make travel more accessible and cheaper for everyone and liberate shut-in populations, such as the elderly, disabled, and people too young to drive, the study says. By boosting the nation's total vehicle miles traveled, that scenario could slightly increase fuel consumption, but it will be mostly electric.
Will AVs reduce dependence on gas?
Yes, most likely the move to AVs, starting with ARS, will accelerate the shift to electric vehicles.