The burning question for many people is: when will all of this happen? It won't happen overnight because current forms of transportation are so well entrenched. It will also take some time for the different technologies to be developed. Most importantly different types of AVs will be introduced in different ways. Some will be easier to develop and introduce. And some will have more significant benefits and get a higher priority. I see all of this evolving in stages.
What is expected to happen over the next two years (2019-2020)
Up through 2018, companies were developing autonomous vehicle technology and beginning extensive road testing. Over the next two years, from 2019-2020, they will start pilot testing of autonomous ride services (ARS) in multiple municipal areas. Passengers will pay to ride in ARS vehicles without a driver. Besides, to proving autonomous technology, ARS companies will also develop and test the business models for ARS. By the end of 2020, tens of thousands of ARS vehicles will in the pilot tests by more than a half-dozen companies.
Toward the end of this period, autonomous trucking and delivery will start into pilot testing.
I refer to this as Stage 0.
What will happen in Stage 1 (2021-2025)?
By 2021, almost 100,000 ARS vehicles will be introduced in more than 50 locations across the U.S., and the era of autonomous vehicles will be off and running! ARS will grow rapidly during this stage and will reach 1 million vehicles carrying passengers for more than 100 billion miles per year by the end of this stage. At least 20% of the adults in the U.S, will have experience riding in an autonomous vehicle. The ARS market will be more than $150 billion.
Throughout this stage, autonomous home delivery will begin to grow, starting with pizza delivery. As much as 20% of home deliveries in some category of products will be done autonomously. It will be commonplace to see autonomous delivery vehicles on the road. The trucking industry will be well on the way replacing non-autonomous trucks with autonomous ones.
Although still expensive, the autonomous capabilities in individually-owned vehicles will enable them to drive themselves most of the time. There will still be some road systems and weather conditions where these vehicles will need to be driven by a human. By the end of this stage, more than 5% of the vehicles will be sufficiently autonomous.
Throughout this stage, there will continue to be a debate about AVs. Those industries about to be disrupted will lobby against them, and legislation at all levels of government will come into focus. Some states will try to resist AVs and others will embrace them.
What will happen in Stage 2 (2026-2030)?
AVs will become thoroughly entrenched as the primary form of transportation during this stage. The disruptions discussed earlier will be so significant, that they will be apparent to everyone. Nevertheless, the benefits of AVs will be embraced.
More than half of the population will use ARS. There will be more than 5 million ARS vehicles in the U.S. and more than twice that number worldwide. ARS will be a $750 billion market in the U.S., and twice that globally. ARS will be used for more than 15% of the total miles driven in the U.S.
New car sales will be significantly reduced during this stage, and most vehicles will be sold with sufficiently autonomous capabilities.
Autonomous home delivery and trucking will become the norm.
Will the advances continue into the next stage (2031-2035)?
By this period, Stage 3, autonomous driving will become the dominant form of driving and "old fashioned" human-driven cars will start being phased out as too risky. AVs will become even more advanced with vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure capabilities, enabling AVs to speed through synchronized intersections and travel safely at much higher speeds.
The full consequences of AVs will be realized, and governments will start to deal with the benefits and the disruptions.
And what will happen beyond that?
In the final stage, beyond 3035, non-autonomous vehicles will be phased out. They will be limited to driving on roads designated for non-autonomous vehicles. Vehicle ownership will be significantly reduced, and the full benefits of autonomous vehicles will be realized. The horseless-carriage, a little more than a century since its introduction, will pass into history, replaced by the driverless autonomous vehicle.