In addition to autonomous vehicles for transporting passengers, AVs will automate other forms of transportation as well. Home delivery of food and packages will change significantly, but some segments will change much faster than others. Long-haul trucking will quickly see the advantages of autonomous driving. Buses and other transport vehicles will also be automated to varying degrees. Let’s look at the questions this raises.
Will long-haul trucking become autonomous?
I see this happening in two distinct stages. In the first stage, drivers will still be on board the trucks, but the truck will drive itself autonomously for long distances. In the second stage, trucks will become completely autonomous.
What are the advantages of still having a driver on board when the truck is autonomous?
The advantages are significant. Long-haul drivers are legally mandated to take an 8-hour break for every 11 hours of driving. With autonomous trucking, the driver can take a break while the truck drives itself. For example, a 2,600-mile trip requires approximately 55 hours of driving and 96 hours of total time including breaks. If the truck can continue to drive during break periods, then the delivery can be made 40% faster. Truck fleet operators will need 40% fewer trucks to move the same loads. The driver on board would be necessary for driving difficult stretches, position the truck for loading and unloading, and handling the refueling.
How will fully-autonomous trucking work?
In fully autonomous trucking with no driver, the truck will most likely be driven to pick-up/drop-off sites near highway exits, and then the autonomous truck will take it from there. Fueling stations along the way will be prepared to refuel a truck when it arrives.
What types of home delivery could become autonomous?
There are different categories of home delivery: food delivery, grocery delivery, package delivery, and mail delivery. Autonomous delivery will be different for each of these categories, as well as the sub-categories within them.
How will home delivery of food change?
Home delivery of food, pizza, and other prepared warm meals, will increase with autonomous delivery. Home delivery will become cheaper and more convenient.
What will be the first type of autonomous delivery of food?
Pizza is the obvious first opportunity for autonomous home delivery. More than 2 billion pizzas are delivered each year in the U.S. It's not a case of interesting customers to use home delivery, there is already a big existing market for pizza delivery. The economic benefits of pizza delivery are also very favorable. The delivery cost of a pizza is approximately 30% of the cost of the pizza. Without a driver, the cost of a delivered pizza can be 25% lower, which can be significant because pizza is a price sensitive market.
Who will be the first to introduce autonomous pizza delivery?
Four large chains with more than 20,000 stores control the U.S. pizza market: Domino's Pizza, Pizza Hut, Little Caesar's, and Papa John's. Several of these will be among the first to acquire a fleet of autonomous delivery vehicles.
What about the home delivery of fast-food?
Fast-food chains, like McDonald’s, are increasingly testing home delivery using third-party delivery services. They are most likely doing this with an eye on autonomous home delivery in the future, since the cost of delivery is relatively high right now. However, most of the fast-food customers are used to stopping by for breakfast or lunch, rather than eating at home or in the office, so it won’t be as big of an opportunity as it will be for pizza. Also, the economics are not as favorable since the order sizes are lower.
What about meals from restaurants?
Regular and even high-end restaurants are starting to do some home delivery using third-party delivery companies. With the advent of autonomous delivery, more restaurants will begin to offer home delivery because the delivery cost will be minimal, and they will have more control of the timing.
Will some restaurants specialize in home delivery?
Good question. Autonomous home delivery will create an opportunity for home restaurants, essentially people who use their kitchens to prepare meals for customers without the need for a restaurant facility. They can create an online restaurant specializing in what they make best, take orders for meals, prepare them, and request an autonomous delivery vehicle to do the delivery. Home restaurants will become a new opportunity like Uber and Air B&B.
Will autonomous delivery of groceries become popular?
Yes, it will. Many grocery stores are moving in that direction already. The first step is to enable customers to place a grocery order and then come to pick it up. The second step is that the order will be delivered by a driver to the customer. Finally, autonomous delivery will replace the driver and make the delivery cost very affordable.
How will Walmart and Amazon be affected by autonomous home delivery?
This is another good question. Amazon has perfected 2-3-day delivery to almost anywhere. Yet, same-day delivery of some goods such as groceries and related items are an advantage. Walmart, with its 5,000 locations in the U.S., has inherent advantages in same-day home delivery.
Will package delivery by Fed Ex and UPS switch to autonomous delivery?
Probably not. The problem with package delivery, compared to food delivery, is that the customers are not reliably at home when the package is delivered. Eventually, there will be some type of automated system with drop-boxes at homes and robot arms in the vehicles, but this is a long way away. In the meantime, there are some cost-savings advantages package-delivery companies can achieve.
What about the U.S. mail?
Mail delivery has similar problems. Someone must pick the mail and place it into a mailbox. There will be some advantages with the mail truck driving itself, but there will still need to be someone on the truck to handle the mail.
Will autonomous home delivery be done by company-owned fleets or third-party services?
Both. High volume companies like the large pizza companies, Walmart, etc. will have their own fleets using specially designed vehicles with advertising on them. Smaller businesses, like restaurants, will use third-parties for autonomous delivery.
What about autonomous buses and shuttles?
Autonomous shuttles, like those at airports or on college campuses, will provide an early opportunity for autonomous vehicles. They will follow standard, short, and simple routes at low speeds. So, the complexity and risk are both low.
School buses and public transit buses won't be so attractive to automate. There will still need to be someone on board to interact with passengers and control the bus at the stopping points.